India has little or no experience Wuhan China has had in facing Coronavirus costing it so many lives. World does not have any historical understanding of any similar virus that can spread so fast and kill so many.
THIS IS FAR DEADLIER THAN THE FLU.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the United States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and others have said, COVID-19 is deadlier than the flu. Its deadlier for young adults. Young adults are defined as between ages 18 to 25. Its deadlier for older people of 80 and above. Its is still deadly for people above 70. More men are hit by it than women.
A chart from Business Insider compares it with flu that there is no comparison. Some experts say its dangerous to compare the two. United States flu deaths to deaths in China from COVID-19 is fifteen percent deadlier. The flu killed .82 percent over age 65, Covid 19 killed 14.8 percent people over age 80.
SOCIAL DISTANCE IS SO FAR MOST EFFECTIVE ADVICE.
Isolation and quarantined area is crucial to fight the virus. China death toll was going high in the beginning starting in Dec 2019 with early reports. Vuhan city built emergency 10,000 bed hospital in two week time. Patients were isolated from their families. It limited causalities. China was making mistake of letting families keep one family member within family and isolated. It did not work. One sick person infected every member of the family and more deaths resulted by this. United States has also closed major public institutions, schools, libraries and advised more workers to work by internet and stay home and away from crowds.
Temples and religious gathering can be fatal in India. The infected person spreads virus at an exponential rate that was beyond thinking before this virus spread.
FAST GOVERNMENT REACTION IS A MUST.
U.S. President trump declared national emergency yesterday. Emergency resulted in 40 billion dollars worth of emergency aid to the states and cities to equip for public safety. Seattle city bought a 100 bed motel for 4.5 million dollars instantly just to keep all infected people in one place. American health system if frightened of getting overwhelmed by spread of virus and when the government will be helpless to save lives.
When people were dying fast in China, they had to make decisions which lives to save, for example between a pregnant woman and elderly man. Choice had to be made to save the pregnant woman. Only an authoritarian government can do that. How would an overwhelmed America or India in democracy will make its policy decision in such scenario.
BUYING TIME IS MOST IMPORTANT.
The more isolated infected person can be kept the slower the spread of the infection will be. Most people walk out cured and do not spread infection if cured. Government and society both will be better prepared to halt the virus. Wuhan city where the virus originated, banned all travel movement originating from Wuhan after finding spread of virus.
The Wuhan travel ban reduced 202,000 cases in China, delaying epidemic , buying time to prepare for rest of China, according to research study done by 15 institutions in China, US and UK .
India must plan how it will buy time before our health system can be overwhelmed. United States, Germany, China, Italy, all have proved not well prepared to fight the virus. What can India learn from these countries?
HOW WILL INDIA FACE IT?
The United States had 2.8 beds per 1,000 residents, Germany had 8 beds and China 4.3 per 1,000. The World Health Statistics say that India has 0.9 beds per 1,000 population – far below the global average of 2.9 beds. India has a current public sector availability of one bed per 2012 persons available in 12,760 government hospitals — around 0.5 beds per 1,000 population. Sri Lanka on the other hand has 3.1 beds per 1,000 population, Thailand 2.2, Brazil 2.4.
TESTING CENTERS.
India can learn one big mistake done by U.S. President Trump. He did not value Carona 19 spread in the beginning. Vice President was supposed to issue policy statements on controlling the virus. U.S. did not have enough testing centers like south Korea has. Korean Drive thru testing was laughed off but they tested 250,000 people. But it saved lives in Korea. Now U.S. is struggling hard to add more testing centers. US Food and Drug Administration issued orders to produce test which produces 500,000 or so additional testing packages starting next week. New York state started its own plans in cooperation with public and private laboratories.
Anyone walking in with common cold like symptoms or viral fever, asking to be tested, will not get tested as of today in India. This must change immediately. Present 52 testing centers can result in a very bad preparation to say the least. Every one of districts in India must have minimum one testing center. There are about 600 districts. They do not cost huge money and do not need super special trained personnel. Its an issue of prioritizing what is crucial.
FAST BUILDING OF QUARANTINED AREAS IS ONE SOLUTION.
Chinese quarantined areas are not like concentration camps. They have reasonable beds. Not all people there are with serious conditions. They live and even dance or sing in the area until they are safe from positive virus effect, and walk out after they recover. We have done that successfully in Kerala. But that was a small scale. We must understand implications for India when German Chancellor said that 70 percent of their population can get coronavirus infection.
India must plan if Kerala quarantined efforts can be put to use on mass scale for a 1.3 billion people. It does not mean all will get seriously ill but will carry the germs in body even when they look healthy.
India must buy time before positive tested people can be cured and be allowed to mix with rest of population. Corona is a thing that has no comparison from the past since history got started to be recorded
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